Poll surge for Alexis Tsipras’ Syriza as Greeks learn to smile again

From:

 The Observer

Helena Smith in Athens

Approval ratings for radical left party soar despite U-turns forced in debt talks and collapse of tax collection, but the people still expect the government to deliver

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Alexis Tsipras’ left-led government may be the bane of Europe’s political establishment, but in Greece support is soaring as Athens’ new political class negotiates the country’s economic plight.

One month and three days after the tough-talking firebrand assumed power, Greeks of all political persuasions appear to like what they see. A Metron Analysis poll published on Saturday showed popularity ratings for the prime minister’s radical left Syriza party at an all-time high: from the almost 36% it won in snap polls on 25 January, support for Syriza has jumped to 47.6%, a record for a movement that only three years ago was on margins of Greek politics.

In a triumphant address Tsipras attributed the surge to restored pride after five rollercoaster years of being humbled and humiliated by the debt-stricken nation’s worst economic crisis in modern times.

“The Greek people feels it is regaining the dignity that it has been doubted and denied,” the leader told Syriza’s central committee at the weekend. “From the very first day of the new [coalition] government, Greece stopped being a pariah, executing orders and enforcing memorandums,” he said, referring to the EU- and IMF-sponsored bailout accords Athens signed to keep afloat.

On the street, optimism has returned. People worn down by gruelling austerity, on the back of unprecedented recession, are smiling. Government officials have taken to walking through central Athens, instead of ducking into chauffeur-driven cars to avoid protesters. Last week, finance minister Yanis Varoufakis – a maverick to many of his counterparts – was mobbed by appreciative voters as he ambled across Syntagma square.

“They’ve given us our voice back,” said Dimitris Stathokostopoulos, a prominent entrepreneur. “For the first time there’s a feeling that we have a government that is defending our interests. Germany needs to calm down. Austerity hasn’t worked. Wherever it has been applied it has spawned poverty, unemployment, absolute catastrophe.”

The approval is all the more extraordinary, given the policy U-turns the anti-austerity government has been forced to make – concessions that have sparked fierce opposition within the ranks of Syriza. Faced with the reality of governing, Tsipras has dropped demands for a reduction of the country’s monumental debt; agreed to continued supervision by auditors at the EU, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund (now named “the institutions” rather than the maligned “troika”); and abandoned pre-election pledges by promising not to take “unilateral” steps that might throw the budget off-balance.

The climbdown triggered criticism by leading Syriza members, including the second world war resistance hero Manolis Glezos who apologised for participating in a government that had given the “illusion” of offering an alternative way out. Leading members of the small, rightwing Independent Greeks party, in coalition after Syriza narrowly failed to win an absolute majority, express similar reservations in private.

But analysts said disdain for a political establishment blamed for bringing Greece to the brink of ruin and plain exhaustion were also working in Tsipras’ favour.

“Politically this is now the strongest government in over a decade,” political commentator Pavlos Tsimas said. “To a great degree it reflects how fed up people are, but also how much they despise the political system

Yet the government is walking a fine line and its popularity could as easily evaporate if it is perceived not to deliver. Accusations of political incompetence, narcissism and moral high-handedness are already rife.

On Friday, Varoufakis triggered uproar by declaring that the government was proud of the “degree of creative ambiguity” used in drafting reforms set as the condition of prolonging the country’s bailout program – initially due to expire yesterday – until June.

The extension was grudgingly agreed, despite the concerns of the ECB and IMF that the figures Athens offered were overly abstruse. As the German Bundestag prepared to vote through the extension, Varoufakis told a local television channel: “They asked for it. They said, ‘for us to pass it in our parliaments, our institutions, it’s better to leave it vague’.”

The government’s first challenge comes this week when it tries to plug a fiscal black hole exacerbated by the collapse of tax collection. Tax revenues have fallen by 22.5% – much more than anticipated – as Greeks, put off by political uncertainty, have stopped paying. Locked out of markets, the country must repay €21.8bn (£15.8bn) in maturing debt this year, starting with a €1.6bn loan to the IMF in the coming days.

With further rescue funds not on offer until Athens satisfies creditors with reforms, the government is likely to run out of cash – and funding options – by mid-March. Salvation, say economists, will only come if the ECB allows it to issue short-term debt through Treasury bills.

“They have a real problem on their hands,” said Tsimas. “A looming credit crunch that is far worse than anyone ever thought because of the drop in revenues.”

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